Ignore the Hysteria- December ISM PMI is a Positive Indicator

January 4, 2019

Contrary to the negative descriptions of many of the headline writers, the December ISM PMI index came in UP 0.6% from its 5-year average for December from 2013-2017, indicating growth in the Manufacturing sector in December, and in the broader economy.

How bad are those headlines? Sheeeesh!

How about

Bad ISM gives huge push in US T’s back

or :

US Factory Gauge Tumbles by Most Since 2008.

Nothing like calling up the ghost of recessions past. Recession must be imminent, right?

Now before analyzing these incredibly pessimistic headlines, let us state a couple of Facts.

Fact 1) The December 2018  ISM PMI was actually 54.1 and indicated continued economic expansion;

Fact 2) The average December ISM PMI for the five years of 2013-2017 was 53.4;Fact 3) The December 2018 ISM PMI came in actually 0.6 points ABOVE THE FIVE YEAR AVERAGE!

Fact 4) When the ISM PMI fell in September of 2008 to 38.9 in October of 2008, the index was already in negative territory-below 50.

Truth be told, the December 2018 ISM PMI continued to indicate “expansion in the manufacturing sector in December and in the general economy For the 116th consecutive month. ISM

How is that bad news?

While the numeric value of the drop  was the “largest” since 2008- the fact that the index remained in positive economic expansion is ignored in the headline- leaving the reader to ponder the scary connection to the Great Recession of 2008.

The 5-year average for December was 53.4. Why all the weeping and gnashing of teeth?

Here’s my headline- December ISM PMI  index at 54.1 remains solidly positive indicating continued expansion.

Economic expansion in the Manufacturing sector -just above the average for the past five December’s- and the 116th consecutive month of expansion in the broad economy. We see it as good news for the season! We think that you should too!

 

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2018-On Track to a Strong Finish for Precision Machining

December 20, 2018

With 80 companies responding, the PMPA Business Trends Index for November 2018 declined 11 points to 130,
which was (still) an all-time high for the month of November! Shops reporting sales declines outnumbered those reporting
gains by a ratio of 4:1- not at all unexpected considering the seasonality of shipments this time of year. The Business Trends
Sales Index remains on track to close the year up 8% over 2017.“- PMPA Business Trends Report for November 2018

Though down eleven points from October’s high, PMPA’s November Business Trends Index remains unseasonably strong.

Outlook for next three months:

  • Net Sales: The sales outlook resumes positive expectations for the next three months despite seasonal
    factors.
  • Lead Times: Eighty- six percent of respondents expect lead times to remain the same or increase in the
    next three months.
  •  Employment: Prospects for employment continue to be positive with ninety-seven percent (97%) expecting
    level or increased opportunities for employment.
  • Profitability: Eighty-five percent of our respondents expect business and margins to remain strong for the
    next three months, just a slight decline from the prior month.

In our April report we forecast that our index of sales would finish the year at 135, up 8% over calendar year 2017. As of this November report, we are at 135, up 8 percent over 2017 with just one month to go.

How is your shop’s performance compared to last year?


BLS October Jobs Report: Great News in October- Unless you are looking for workers

November 2, 2018

Our TakeJob gains beat consensus expectations, Unemployment is at its lowest level since I was a junior in High school, Participation rate  matches its best  level this year, and  private non-farm wages have risen 3.1%  this year according to this BLS jobs report.  

Bottom linethe US economy is based on consumer spending. This report shows that consumers are growing their purchasing power a positive indicator for the economy going forward.

Facts keep us bullish on manufacturing.

Key Points

  • “Total non-farm payroll employment rose by 250,000 in October, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in manufacturing, in construction, and in transportation and warehousing.”
  •  “In October, employment in manufacturing increased by 32,000. Most of the increase occurred in durable goods manufacturing, with a gain in transportation equipment (+10,000). Manufacturing has added 296,000 jobs over the year, largely in durable goods industries…On average, 213,000 jobs have been added each month  in 2018 YTD.” 
  • “The labor force participation rate increased by 0.2 percentage point to 62.9 percent in October but has shown little change over the year.
  • “In manufacturing, the workweek edged down by 0.1 hour to 40.8 hours, and overtime was unchanged at 3.5 hours.“ 
  • “In October, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 5 cents to $27.30. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 83 cents, or 3.1 percent.“
  • “The unemployment rate remains at it’s 48 year low, 3.7%- lowest rate since 1969.  Interestingly, not a single industry was reported to have lost any jobs.” 

September and 3rd Quarter 2018- Unseasonably Strong for Precision Machining

November 1, 2018

PMPA’s Business Trends Index for September 2018 came in at 106% of its value a year ago, despite its 7.7% decline from August’s record tying performance. September 2018’s value of 132 is a record for the month of September, a frequent occurrence this year. The September 2018 value of 132 is also 10.4% above the five year average for the index in the month of September. year to date our index indicates that sales  up 10 points or 8% over  the 2017 year-end average.

Unseasonably strong sales in September for Precision Machining Industry.

Opinions for the next three months compared to today:

  • Net Sales: The sales outlook confirms Pareto’s law with 80% of reporting shops expecting sales to improve or remain level over the next three months.
  • Lead Times: Ninety- one percent of respondents expect lead times to remain the same or increase in the next three months.
  • Employment: Prospects for employment are positive with ninety-eight percent (98%) expecting level or increased opportunities for employment.
  • Profitability: Eighty-four percent of our respondents expect business and margins to remain strong for the next three months.

Current Environment: 2018 continues on pace to a much stronger than average sales year as we determined in our April report. The sentiment indicators that we track recognize a seasonal decline ahead, but remain in positive territory for the precision machining industry.  Our industry continues to outperform 5-year averages by a wide margin!

PMPA members can download a full copy of the September 2018 Business Trends Report here

Key takeaway: Our business has changed- have we adjusted our management thinking to match?


OSHA Inspections 2018 YTD Precision Machining Industry

October 22, 2018

OSHA is still fulfilling its mission promoting worker and workplace safety. Safety, Amputations, and Planned Inspections led the OSHA inspection categories for NAICS 332721 so far this year.

At PMPA we take a look twice a week at the OSHA inspections posted online for our industry. In the event that one of our members is on that list, we call immediately to offer our assistance. If it is a non-member, we look to learn what vulnerabilities are being encountered in the industry shops not belonging to PMPA.

Here’s what we found out.

So far this year, OSHA has posted notices of 53  inspections for our NAICS code- 332721 online. 53!

Chart of OSHA inspections frequency for 2018 NAICS 332721 Precision Machining Shops

 

The single largest category were for “Safety” – 15 of 53, 28% of all inspections posted.

Go figure.

The second most frequent category was “Amputations“-12 of 53, 23%.

This really is aggravating. There is no excuse for anyone to be losing body parts. We need to contact our people immediately to review the basics about pinchpoints, rotating equipment, and the pointlessness of trying to stop a lathe with our fingers or thumb. 

I won’t display the photos but if you want to see what a drill can do to a human hand click this link:  Graphic Image

Programmed (planned ) Inspections were third  with 7 of 53 or 13%. Routine enforcement is still a “real thing” at OSHA.

Complaints  came in at fourth  with 4 out of 53 inspections being initiated as a result of a complaint- 8% of inspections due to complaints..

Health tied with Complaints at 4 inspections out of 53- 8% of inspections due to occupational health concerns

Rounding out the ten causes were Noise, Reinspections, Accidents, Referrals, and Inspections.

Reasons cited for OSHA Inspections for NAICS 332721 (frequency) Calendar year 2018 YTD

 

OSHA is still fulfilling its mission promoting worker and workplace safety. The above reasons show how your peers are being examined. Are you ready for an OSHA inspection?

Photocredit: Mystalk

Data and Chart Preparation credit Veronica Hopson, PMPA

Original Data sourced from USDOL OSHA.


Quality Quote

October 10, 2018

No spec, no quality. Know Spec, know quality.

Quality means compliance with all terms of the specification.

Know the specification!


August Precision Machining Sales Reclaims Record!

September 26, 2018

PMPA Business Trends Report reclaims all-time record high of 143 in August. March 2018 was the first time that our sales index recorded such strong sales.

Precision machining Industry Sales and shipments back up to March 2018’s record levels!

Eighty percent (80%) of  our respondents reported sales increases,  51 percent of shops reporting reported sales increases in the double digits.

Sentiment indicators remain strong.

Very positive look forward next three months.

 

Our markets and businesses have changed- have we as managers kept up?

If this was a control chart, you would say the process has shifted upwards…

How are you managing differently for success rather than survival?