PMPA’s October 2016 Business Trends Report- Boring is Good

With 84 companies responding, the PMPA Business Trends Index in October 2016 declined 1.7% to 116 from 118, virtually identical to its movement from September to October last year (when it fell from 121 to 119- a 1.6% drop.)  Our Index Average year to date is 119, down just 2 points from last year’s calendar year average of 121.  Twenty-two percent (22%) of our respondents reported sales increases in October, thirty-one percent (31%) reported sales decreases, remainder reported no change.

Modest change in sales at same magnitude as last year same report.

Modest change in sales at same magnitude as last year same report.

Meanwhile, the Fed reported that Industrial Production was unchanged from September to October, while the manufacturing output component increased 0.2 percent.  The Fed estimates capacity utilization at 75.3%, down 4.7% from its long run (1972-2015) average.

The October 2016 PMPA Business Trends Report shows that our responding shops continue to perform somewhat better than expected, down not quite two percent (1.7%) from last month.  The 3 month moving average has turned up, but remains below the 12 month moving average as we report the first month of the seasonally slow fourth quarter.  The Average Sales for the Industry remains within a couple of points of last year’s calendar year average, and our 119 YTD is “essentially even” with the performance of our shops in CY 2014 and 2015.  October Lead Time sentiment suggests that our shops expect sales to be stronger than the Sales Indicator alone shows.  Our indicators this month justify our optimism about the markets and employment prospects for our precision machining industry.

Members can see full report Here.

 

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