Manufacturing Contracts in November- ISM PMI

December 8, 2015

The Institute for Supply Management   Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector dropped to 48.6 in November from an October reading of 50.1. The reading, below 50% indicates contraction. This month’s reading  was the lowest since the end of the Great Recession in June 2009.

Manufacturing contracts for first time since

Manufacturing contracts for first time since

The employment index was at 51.3%, up from 47.6% in October, and the new orders index was at 48.9%, down from 52.9%.

The only good news for manufacturing in the ISM release was Manufacturing Employment and Raw Material prices:

  • Employment Index registered 51.3 percent, 3.7 percentage points above the October reading of 47.6 percent.
  • The Prices Index registered 35.5 percent, a decrease of 3.5 percentage points from the October reading of 39 percent, indicating lower raw materials prices for the 13th consecutive month.

Among the manufacturing markets that contracted in November according to the ISM report:

  • Fabricated Metal Products
  • Machinery
  • Primary Metals
  • Electrical Equipment
  • Appliances & Components
  • Computer & Electronic Products

The PMPA’s Business Trends Report for October came in at 119 for October – down two points from last month’s 121, down 12 points from October 2014’s record of 131, and interestingly, exactly the same value as the average for October for the past five years – 118.8 or 119. Our report also showed expectations for employment leveling off in October.

PMPA October 2015 Business Trends Report

Graph Courtesy Calculated Risk Blog


November 2012 ISM Reports- Manufacturing Contracting

December 4, 2012

The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction in November. PMI was at  49.5% in November, down from 51.7% in October. 

US manufacturing shrank to its lowest level since July 2009, at the end of the Great Recession.

US manufacturing shrank to its lowest level since July 2009, at the end of the Great Recession.

This confirms  the trend we identified in our October Business Trends Report- precision machining shipments have fallen to a rate below those of 2011.

The ISM  PMI report was expected to remain at October’s level of 51.7.

More disappointment:

The employment index was at 48.4%, down from 52.1%, and the new orders index  was at 50.3%, down from 54.2%.

Why this is scary:

Weakness in manufacturing makes these ratios even worse.

Weakness in manufacturing makes these ratios even worse.

Calculated Risk Graph

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