February ISM PMI- Stronger Than The Pundits Let On

March 1, 2019

The February PMI® registered 54.2 percent, an decrease of 2.4 percentage points from the January reading of 56.6 percent…Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in February, and the overall economy grew for the 118th consecutive month.“- Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee

Solidly positive unless you are microfocused on the trend.

 

While the expectation was for 55 or more, and so many folks were disappointed at this slower rate of growwth in manufacturing, this point of view actually misses where exactly we are in the Manufacturing cycle.

What the disappointed people see: Eeyores view:

ISM PMI Feb 2019 Down down down…

 

Here is a less myopic view:

Same data different scale.

 

Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/business-confidence

Yes the trend is declining.

Look at where we have been!

Now back to the ISM report:

““Comments from the panel reflect continued expanding business strength, supported by notable demand and output, although both were softer than the prior month. Demand expansion continued, with the New Orders Index reaching the mid-50s, the Customers’ Inventories Index scoring lower and remaining too low, and the Backlog of Orders returning to a low-50s expansion level. ” – No bad news to be found here!

We continue to see the positives in the ISM PMI indicator. Our shops are running full and sentiment on our internal reports remains strongly positive.

We’re definitely not having an Eeyore moment in Precision Machining!

We’re not having an Eeyore moment despite the graphs.

 

Disney photocredit: https://winniethepooh.disney.com/eeyore