The PMPA Business Trends Index for January 2018 jumped to 135, up 25% over December 2017, and up 5% over January 2017. This is up 8.9% over the five year average for January Sales, and is our highest January on record.
Change your thinking to thrive to this new market.
Cheap inputs that cost your shop capacity are no bargain, when there are no shops scheduling less than 40 hours and 71% of shops are scheduling overtime. It is all about UPTIME in this current market. There are no bargains worth having that cost you uptime. And that means training your people is essential as well.
What we are hearing “falling behind…exceeded forecast by 10%…Can’t get it out quick enough…Picking which jobs to run…” Almost three quarters of shops reporting (74.3%) reported sales increases up by ten percent or more in January.
The Fed reported that Industrial Production (IP) “edged down 0.1 percent in January following four consecutive monthly increases. Manufacturing production was unchanged in January.” Our industry is clearly a leading indicator for IP- they cannot make it until we produce the precision components needed.
Last January we said that “…the animal spirits have escaped confinement and are driving the manufacturing economy to performance not seen in years.” Last month we reported that industry sales “were up 6.8% for the year, a multiple of GDP growth.”
This report for January 2018 shows that our responding shops are outperforming the five-year shipments average for the month of January by almost 9%.
Our Lead Time indicator suggests that some shops are starting to think about capacity constraints. Strong sentiment for profitability tells me that no one is “buying” business by cutting margins. Our Employment indicator recognizes that to continue production at these levels, we need to add talent. Our performance and sentiment indicators this month justify our optimism about the markets and employment prospects for our precision machining industry in this New Year.
It is all about UPTIME in this current market. Cheap inputs that cost your shop capacity are no bargain. Change your thinking to thrive to this new market.