September PMI Report- Fragile Economy and Soft Order Book

The PMI™ registered 51.7 percent, an increase of 0.2 percentage point from September’s reading of 51.5 percent, indicating growth in manufacturing at a slightly faster rate.”

Underperforming at best. We have the tools…

“The New Orders Index registered 54.2 percent, an increase of 1.9 percentage points from September, indicating growth in new orders for the second consecutive month.”

Why we’re not exactly ecstatic over October’s 1.9% increase in new orders- Look at  our shipments for the month September…

“The Production Index registered 52.4 percent, an increase of 2.9 percentage points, indicating growth in production following two months of contraction. The Employment Index registered 52.1 percent, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points, and the Prices Index registered 55 percent, reflecting a decrease of 3 percentage points.”

“Comments from the panel this month reflect continued concern over a fragile global economy and soft orders across several manufacturing sectors.” (emphasis mine)

“Order book is really soft,” according to my industry contacts. I won’t say who said “As soft as a pair of fuzzy slippers.”

According to the ISM release, the following manufacturing sectors- listed in order reported declines in October: Primary Metals; Wood Products; Machinery; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer & Electronic Products; and Nonmetallic Mineral Products.

The precision machined products industry is a sub sector of Fabricated Metals, and we directly serve the Machinery, Transportation Equipment, Electrical Equipment, Appliances and Components, Computer and Electronic Products Industries, mentioned as contracting in the ISM report.

Many of the United States’ export markets are currently contracting, with the Eurozone being especially hard hit by declining new orders across the continent. The BEA and US Census reported that goods exports decreased from $130.7 billion to $128.5 billion; goods imports declined as well from $188.5 billion to $187.8 billion. The fragile global economy is slowing trade.

Precison machined products are used in a wide variety of applications and technologies, and contraction in those markets can’t help but be felt by our industry.

You can see the full ISM release here

Calculated Risk Chart

Soft Slippers

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