Comments on: Manufacturing Jobs: Separations vs. Hires

By: Eric Chodl

Eric Chodl — Sat, 27 Oct 2012 16:19:23 +0000

That’s 16,000 total companies, manufacturing companies is only a fraction of that.

By: Eric Chodl

Eric Chodl — Sat, 27 Oct 2012 16:17:11 +0000

Also keep in mind that BLS data is extremely extrapolated. The JOLTS only surveys 16,000 companies per month. Data within a 12 month period shows extremely large variation and is adjusted with each new monthly survey. The BLS does however have a proven track record of showing that every separate survey under jobs, employment, and unemployment begins to show the same trends when you start looking at 12 month averages and annual trends. A single month decline is only examining a trend on the scale of 32,000 companies.

By: speakingofprecision

speakingofprecision — Thu, 25 Oct 2012 20:18:18 +0000

Thanks Scott. I have been blogging and posting graphs for almost two years now.
I was just as “passionate ” about the last administration’s failure regarding China Currency manipulation-For even longer than that. I blogged about the current administration’s succesful WTO case regarding tires at that time of the announcement: http://pmpaspeakingofprecision.com/2011/09/06/wto-upholds-us-tire-tariffs-in-chinese-appeal/

Also their victory on Canadian bidding rules for government contracts:
http://pmpaspeakingofprecision.com/2010/02/10/administration-wins-one-on-trade/

I do not deny that there is a presidential election coming up, but can assure you that a graph so compelling as this one would be posted on my blog regardless of to whom it might provide witness.
Thanks for your comments and following us on WordPress.

By: Scot Abaray

Scot Abaray — Thu, 25 Oct 2012 12:44:24 +0000

Understood, but what is the long term here ? 2, 4, 6 months ? I beliveve you tend to see these trends take place just prior to a presidential election. Companies are a bit on edge. In addition to this, and considering this is such a close election, both parties are anxious to use statistics to benefit themselves.

By: speakingofprecision

speakingofprecision — Mon, 22 Oct 2012 17:59:59 +0000

The post was not about long term trend, the post was about the current impact of the point in time. the long term trend is no comfort at all to the folks affected when as theis graph shows, all three indicators go the wrong waqy at once.
Thanks for your feedback.

By: Daryl Lucien

Daryl Lucien — Wed, 17 Oct 2012 15:51:16 +0000

If you’re going to rely on graphs to make your point, then use trend lines as an overlay. It’s only prudent. What you show above contradicts what what you wrote. Unless your legend is incorrect. What I see, without doing the calculations….red line would without a doubt trend up with a correlation over .50 using straight line. Light blue… slight down. Dark blue… slight down. What happens in the short term can totally contradict any trends.

What is more curious…the underlying issues. Why would, as you say, separations be up, hires be down and the available jobs be so dramatically up? Clearing out dead wood? Unable to determine suitability? Are these jobs heavy in production tasking, admin, field operations? Sorry, but I just see data noise without explanations.